Football / 2026
Matchup Outlook
Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field · Starkville, MS
An early look at this matchup using results available through Sep 24. Season statistics and the experimental forecast can change before kickoff.
The statistical edge
By the metrics
Two teams. Every edge. Per-game averages.
Total offenseyards / game
Points scoredpoints / game
Passing offenseyards / game
Rushing offenseyards / game
Total defenseyards allowed / game
Points allowedpoints allowed / game
Passing yards allowedyards allowed / game
Rushing yards allowedyards allowed / game
Longer segment = stronger stat. Center tick = even. These are statistical edges, not win odds. FBS ranks are statistical rankings, not poll positions.
SEC: 16 teams · FBS: 138 teams. Ranks calculated from ESPN season averages as of Sep 24. T# indicates a tie.
SVR matchup forecast
Beyond the box score
The competition faced. The production delivered. Our read on the matchup.
AlabamaProjected edge
The matchup grades / 100
Schedule strength
63.7Difficulty of games already played, including venue.
Team production
60.7Current-season scoring, yardage and defense.
Overall grade
72.1Game results and production, in opponent and venue context.
Higher is stronger. 50 is the model’s midpoint, not a failing grade. These are SVR grades, not SEC or NCAA rankings. The game venue also informs the win estimate.
Who they have faced
Mississippi State 3 games
- UL Monroe Warhawks
- Minnesota Golden Gophers
- South Carolina Gamecocks
Alabama 3 games
- East Carolina Pirates
- Kentucky Wildcats
- Florida State Seminoles
Early-season caution · 2026 results available through 2026-09-24. A small sample can move this estimate substantially. Prior-season results help assess opponents early, with their influence fading as new results accumulate. Model estimates are not betting odds, have not been historically calibrated, and do not include injuries, lineup changes or weather. No result is guaranteed.
About these numbers
Statistics checked 2026-09-24. Season-to-date outlook through Sep 24, 2026; not a live feed. MSU: 3 games · Alabama: 3 games. Player totals and team averages are shown separately. Rankings appear only where sourced, with tied ranks retained.
Mississippi State season statistics · ESPN
Alabama season statistics · ESPN
Mississippi State’s schedule is shared with the Football page. The metric comparison bars show statistical edges, not win probabilities. The separate SVR forecast uses completed ESPN game results and season production. Its schedule grades evaluate opponents independently of their game against the team being graded. Unplayed games are excluded, and small samples are treated conservatively.