Football / 2026
Matchup Outlook
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS
An early look at this matchup using results available through Nov 10. Season statistics and the experimental forecast can change before kickoff.
The statistical edge
By the metrics
Two teams. Every edge. Per-game averages.
Total offenseyards / game
Points scoredpoints / game
Passing offenseyards / game
Rushing offenseyards / game
Total defenseyards allowed / game
Points allowedpoints allowed / game
Passing yards allowedyards allowed / game
Rushing yards allowedyards allowed / game
Longer segment = stronger stat. Center tick = even. These are statistical edges, not win odds. FBS ranks are statistical rankings, not poll positions.
SEC: 16 teams · FBS: 138 teams. Ranks calculated from ESPN season averages as of Nov 10. T# indicates a tie.
SVR matchup forecast
Beyond the box score
The competition faced. The production delivered. Our read on the matchup.
Ole MissProjected edge
The matchup grades / 100
Schedule strength
73.4Difficulty of games already played, including venue.
Team production
54.7Current-season scoring, yardage and defense.
Overall grade
70.5Game results and production, in opponent and venue context.
Higher is stronger. 50 is the model’s midpoint, not a failing grade. These are SVR grades, not SEC or NCAA rankings. The game venue also informs the win estimate.
Who they have faced
Mississippi State 9 games
- UL Monroe Warhawks
- Minnesota Golden Gophers
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- Missouri Tigers
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- LSU Tigers
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Texas Longhorns
- Vanderbilt Commodores
Ole Miss 9 games
- Louisville Cardinals
- Charlotte 49ers
- LSU Tigers
- Florida Gators
- Vanderbilt Commodores
- Missouri Tigers
- Texas Longhorns
- Auburn Tigers
- Georgia Bulldogs
Experimental forecast · 2026 results available through 2026-11-10. Prior-season results help assess opponents early, with their influence fading as new results accumulate. Model estimates are not betting odds, have not been historically calibrated, and do not include injuries, lineup changes or weather. No result is guaranteed.
About these numbers
Statistics checked 2026-11-10. Season-to-date outlook through Nov 10, 2026; not a live feed. MSU: 9 games · Ole Miss: 9 games. Player totals and team averages are shown separately. Rankings appear only where sourced, with tied ranks retained.
Mississippi State season statistics · ESPN
Ole Miss season statistics · ESPN
Mississippi State official statistics · defensive leaders reconciled with completed game boxes
Mississippi State’s schedule is shared with the Football page. The metric comparison bars show statistical edges, not win probabilities. The separate SVR forecast uses completed ESPN game results and season production. Its schedule grades evaluate opponents independently of their game against the team being graded. Unplayed games are excluded, and small samples are treated conservatively.